The best way to get approval is not to need it.
Hugh Macleod
In my not-so-conventional way of approaching the FX market, I’ve got to tell you from the start that I mostly trade crosses, with majors being a non-demoinant part of the portfolio.
The scenario that I’m discussing here is a short approach to this pair at current levels 1.82. If we see the recent top @ 1.84 being taken out, then the scenario becomes immediately invalid. Make use of intermediate levels (should the price get to them) like 1.8300-10, to get a better risk/reward for the scenario as a whole.
The so-called commodity currencies bloc (invented by someone very ‘clever’, of course) is being hit in the wake of the current ‘oil crisis’. I’m sorry, but I can’t hold myself off from LOL! And why is that? Simple. Just about 3 months ago, the price of oil was about $105/bbl. In this short lapse of time, by some miraculous event, not only has the price been cut in half, we now learn that global demand will be very weak for considerable time to come and that prices might even fall more! Yeah, right………….
Unfortunately, or very fortunately if you look at the bigger picture, the West (elite psicopaths) is waging war against Russia (and not the other way around; believing that means that you are either a) on the psicopath’s payroll or b) a gullible, easily-manipulated ignorant who will be ‘loved’), using all of its non-material arsenal at once. This includes:
1. Crude Oil Futures Contracts: through the Wall St thug-crowd, they’ve (in connivance with the deadly kingdom of Saudi Arabia) plunged the value of oil, so that the largest oil and gas exporter, Russia, whose economy is largely reliant on stable prices for those commodities, ill get hit…hard.
2. Currency Manipulation: The Russian currency has plummeted by over 70% against both USD and EUR, some days falling (and rising) by over 10%. This is something that would not be possible without some inside help. Russia’s fifth-column traitors are in its central bank. Though a good chess player, I reckon Vladimir Putin has only realized this now, and has started a campàign to purge those working for foreign interests inside Russia.
3. Sanctions: Black lists in order to grab other people’s assets legally. Of less overall importance here.
The good thing about dominating (for now) the financial world, is that all that’s been written above becomes irrelevant when gauging the moves of those currencies that would have to suffer the effects of such a ‘grave’, although fabricated, situation. This is the case of the CAD, part of the G10, which yes, it has been hit recently, but should it be so pegged to the value of oil as ‘experts (in the payroll) say’, it would’ve had to plummet by some 25-30% give or take. As I say, nothing like being the creator of the market yourself to know up to where things can go (again…..for now). With Russia unloading its FX reserves (in a move directed by Putin, bypassing 5th column traitors at the central bank), and China holding those US treasuries en masse, I think the US-idiocy days may be –hopefully– numbered.
OK, back to the topic of the GBP/CAD scenario. My view isn’t at all based on the macro view perspective shared here, that is my personal account of things. But if stabilizing the RUB and Crude Oil makes it for the CAD to strenghten, then I welcome it; though not needed. The intrinsic price action of the cross is what makes my call to come out, The rest is a nonsense game by people that should be better locked up and play Monopoly to satisfy their aires de grandeur.