GBP smells bad, really really (but hey) really bad…

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.
Thomas Jefferson (1743 – 1826)

The GBP is marching higher against the other major peers this January (bar the USD, for other -and to some, obvious- reasons, and the CHF after its ‘shocking event’), in what -in my Model’s own terms- is a serious price aberration that may be anticipating something of a larger scale just lurking in the shadows. It is, the other 2 majors aside, the best performing major by some distance and has even managed to curb losses against the ‘almighty’ USD. Something’s fishy.

GBP/NZD hits 2.08 from 1.9250 (ie, 1,550 pips up +8%); GBP/AUD hits 1.9425 off 1.84 lows (1,000+ pips up +5.5%); GBP/CAD hits 1.90 off 1.7750 (1,250 pips up +7%); and EUR/GBP hits 0.74 off 0.7850 (450 pips down +6%). Not bad for a couple of weeks of actual trading (it’s only January, you stupid!).

Let’s talk about it, shall we?

Audible posts

Money has never made man happy, nor will it, there is nothing in its nature to produce happiness. The more of it one has the more one wants.
Benjamin Franklin

Posts will be in audio format from now on thanks to Chirbit.com. This will allow for more and more regular posting.

First audio is a test for the Trade2win.com forums (where I’m active in the Forex one), talking about the CHF thing of the past and its meaning for small traders. Click the icon below to listen to it. I hope you find it useful.

FX View: EUR/USD (+)

A handful of patience is worth more than a bushel of brains.
Dutch Proverb

I promise I’ll be back shortly with an in-depth view of the ‘party’ we all who participate in the FX market witnessed last week, but time is of essence at the moment, so I’ll go right to the point:

I’m buying EUR/USD @ 1.1550, stop on a close below 1.14, target 1.2050

Unlike the previous “attempt” (let’s call it that way…) in the low 1.19s, I’m taking this long scenario position with normal volume, and the target suits technical viewers as well, as we have a gap to close around that level, haven’t we?

Also, at current levels in the high 1.81s, you may want to consider buying GBP/CAD, stop on a close above 1.8350, target 1.75 again (we got trail-stopped out on our previous shorts, though prices did hit sub-1.78).

A must-watch documentary

“The bank hath benefit of interest on all moneys which it creates out of nothing.” William Paterson, founder of the Bank of England in 1694, then a privately owned bank

LINK: http://letitbit.net/download/27701.254b8c44e847dbf9d0f7cd434245/Princes_of_the_Yen-_Central_Banks_and_the_Transformation_of_the_Economy.avi.html

This is one of those videos that SHOULD go viral; unfortunately, it has to be promoted like hell just to get a fair amount of clicks and views. I am leaning towards the macabre thought that ‘we’ as human beings like to be treated with disrespect and humiliated, work as slaves for no major purpose at all…..and all in the name of a supposed ‘freedom’.

I’ve known and followed professor Richard Werner for a while now. He is one of those rare people that go outspokenly against the ‘mass media control’ tide and isn’t afraid of doing so time and again. He’s been advocating on monetary reform for quite a while now, and it is thanks to other names such as Bill Still (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LVfmpv71TQ) and Mike Montagne (Mathematically Perfected Economy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBoVSl9Kpyk), that more and more people are growing conscious each day of what the real quest for human freedom is in the long run.

I know. The topic isn’t sexy and it doesn’t have a pair of big boobs to lure you into it; however, you’ll be damned if you don’t play your part (no matter how insignificant you may think it is) in trying to change the current course of action. It’s also just as good not to do it, if you only care for provising for your family and trying to stay aflota; for going out of the real matrix and against the real established system is very hard, no money for that purpose; thankfully, we’ve got the internet to compensate, and divulging the info, as well as getting educated, is as vital a part as getting ready to fight the establishment if needed.

FX View: Long-term GBP/CAD (+ GBP/NZD)

The following calls are based on long-term chart scenarios that have just received their entry signals. We had taken a long GBP/NZD late last week here in this blog; that trade rose overnight quite some distance, and with a different long-term signal appearing (prevailing), either that or just the trailing stop mentioned when the cross would hit above the 2 mark, should be enough to keep you at least flat there. We have a long-term SHORT setup in the pair above 2, stop above 2.2, target 1.75. These are perhaps too wide ranges for you to consider trading, thus I’m just letting you know of it, we’ll focuse on the other pair.

I’m a seller and have been selling  GBP/CAD in the mid 1.80XXs, will add more @ 1.82, 1.83 and 1.85, will take a stop-loss on the full scenario above recent highs, and have set-up a take-profit area starting @ 1.75. The price action dynamics in this pair have been acting wonky to say the least for the last couple of months; if it gets back to normal, we should be seeing some very decent correction there.

FX View: GBP/NZD long trade

I’m buying GBP/NZD here in the very low 1.99’s, may consider 1.9835-45 for more, stop on a close sub-1.9790, target 2.0120-50. Cover with a trailing stop on a move back above 2.

Nice GBP dive today following the pre-new year spike on the 31st, which made it a valuable gift for those of us holding some GBP shorts (my first target in GBP/AUD @ 1.8935 has already been met). However, in the cross which concerns us in this post, the downmove has been extended by quite some distance; and thus, such price action dynamics has triggered a signal from my model. With this trade, I’m also implying that I see value in going long EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD, as these two crosses should favor both EUR and AUD this time, ceasing to be the laggard currencies for now. I don’t have specific signals there, but it is a conclusion that I take from the recent market moves.

Market Talk: EUR/USD and that 1.20 ‘magic’ level

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.
Henry Ford

Well, here we are. Just before New Year and right at the very end of the calendar year life for this rather strange 2014. And as a final gift, the Euro is just poking its nose in the danger zone of the longer term triangle formation.

As you can see from the attached weekly chart, the pair is presently hitting the bottom line of a long-term triangle (assuming it is correctly drawn, that’s the beauty of fine art), as well as nearing a key value area in the 1.21-1.16 region. There we also find the “projected value level” as defined by some economists (those who will never risk a dime trading it, anyway), for the two currencies in the long run. All in all, we certainly are at a very interesting level and in a very particular time of the year, when liquidity is not plentiful to cover for some ‘positions’.

I personally have no position in the pair at present, and unless the price action dynamics change rapidly, won’t be involved in it until next year ;-)). But, I must confess I do see value in those calling for joining the long scenario in the pair from a technical analysis perspective (hence why you see the attached chart). However, I’d like to approach the scenario from a risk management perspective; i.e, that anyone considering buying the pair does that provided he starts covering it on scaled volume (light here at the first level) around current levels @ 1.2150, and allows for that scale to reach down -through intermediate levels- the worst-case scenario printing of 1.1650 to come before any sizeable bounce takes place. My technical targets are in the region between 1.27-1.30 if the support line holds, 1.23-1.25 if we see fireworks going south first.

Although it may not bear  special significance, given the fact that this 1.20 level has already been ‘named’ or hung in the air as a desirable exchange rate level by those in control of issuing the €uro currency, for in their (¿tiny?) minds that would be a good thing, as in order to prop up exports and foster economic growth (which means €urope is now Japan II, bar the QE bonanza, which thankfully thus far has not yet been shoveled down the people’s throats), we may also be witnessing the beginning of the establishing of a new ‘normal’ in the EUR -vs- majors exchange rates. In this regard, the chart attached gives an idea of what that ‘new normal’ might be, for if the green vertical line, which measures the amplitude of the defined triangle, is the measure of how low we’ve got to go in the times ahead (remember, this is a weekly chart), then parity is seriously under peril, something some of those considered to be ‘big experts’ have been barking about recently, and which might exactly be what technicians are also looking at right now…

For my personal diary, I will hold onto my GBP/AUD short position for now, keeping an eye on 1.9220 to take me out of it, aiming @ 1.8930-35 first and then 1.8815.

FX View: GBP/CAD (Update)

By constant self-discipline and self-control you can develop greatness of character.
Grenville Kleiser

A couple of events here and there, what I call -and will always call- ‘excuses’, have served our cause just fine today as both the EUR and GBP go lower on the day, with the CAD and USD being the major beneficiaries of the move.

With prices now around 200 pips from the entry point in the GBP/CAD scenario, we will preserve a bunch of them @ 1.81, still aiming @ 1.7930-35. However, the intrinsic dynamics have changed rather rapidly in this pair after today’s sell-off, so it’s wise to protect what’s in the table at the moment.

FX View: GBP/CAD

The best way to get approval is not to need it.
Hugh Macleod

In my not-so-conventional way of approaching the FX market, I’ve got to tell you from the start that I mostly trade crosses, with majors being a non-demoinant part of the portfolio.

The scenario that I’m discussing here is a short approach to this pair at current levels 1.82. If we see the recent top @ 1.84 being taken out, then the scenario becomes immediately invalid. Make use of intermediate levels (should the price get to them) like 1.8300-10, to get a better risk/reward for the scenario as a whole.

The so-called commodity currencies bloc (invented by someone very ‘clever’, of course) is being hit in the wake of the current ‘oil crisis’. I’m sorry, but I can’t hold myself off from LOL! And why is that? Simple. Just about 3 months ago, the price of oil was about $105/bbl. In this short lapse of time, by some miraculous event, not only has the price been cut in half, we now learn that global demand will be very weak for considerable time to come and that prices might even fall more! Yeah, right………….

Unfortunately, or very fortunately if you look at the bigger picture, the West (elite  psicopaths) is waging war against Russia (and not the other way around; believing that means that you are either a) on the psicopath’s payroll or b) a gullible, easily-manipulated ignorant who will be ‘loved’), using all of its non-material arsenal at once. This includes:

1. Crude Oil Futures Contracts: through the Wall St thug-crowd, they’ve (in connivance with the deadly kingdom of Saudi Arabia) plunged the value of oil, so that the largest oil and gas exporter, Russia,  whose economy is largely reliant on stable prices for those commodities, ill get hit…hard.

2. Currency Manipulation: The Russian currency has plummeted by over 70% against both USD and EUR, some days falling (and rising) by over 10%. This is something that would not be possible without some inside help. Russia’s fifth-column traitors are in its central bank. Though a good chess player, I reckon Vladimir Putin has only realized this now, and has started a campàign to purge those working for foreign interests inside Russia.

3. Sanctions: Black lists in order to grab other people’s assets legally. Of less overall importance here.

The good thing about dominating (for now) the financial world, is that all that’s been written above becomes irrelevant when gauging the moves of those currencies that would have to suffer the effects of such a ‘grave’, although fabricated, situation. This is the case of the CAD, part of the G10, which yes, it has been hit recently, but should it be so pegged to the value of oil as ‘experts (in the payroll) say’, it would’ve had to plummet by some 25-30% give or take. As I say, nothing like being the creator of the market yourself to know up to where things can go (again…..for now). With Russia unloading its FX reserves (in a move directed by Putin, bypassing 5th column traitors at the central bank), and China holding those US treasuries en masse, I think the US-idiocy days may be –hopefully– numbered.

OK, back to the topic of the GBP/CAD scenario. My view isn’t at all based on the macro view perspective shared here, that is my personal account of things. But if stabilizing the RUB and Crude Oil makes it for the CAD to strenghten, then I welcome it; though not needed. The intrinsic price action of the cross is what makes my call to come out,  The rest is a nonsense game by people that should be better locked up and play Monopoly to satisfy their aires de grandeur.

Let’s get FXed

A handful of patience is worth more than a bushel of brains.
Dutch Proverb

They say I’ve got a hand at writing, and it’s taken me far too long to actively engage in the sport again. But here am I. As good as new. My name is Antonio Juste, am from Spain and I trade spot FX live, currently serving as the founder & CIO of Olton Capital, Ltd., a boutique firm that specializes in currency investments on behalf of its investors.

I intend to bring the reader closer to the market that really and ultimately affects and directs our lives, from an out-of-the-box, unconvential road. This is a road I have paved by myself with my own two bare hands and feet, the cost of which does not constitute a topic for this blog; reaping the benefits, in whichever way or form you choose, is. This blog will include technical/price action related posts (with some randomly handpicked live positions in the market), as well as a personal perspective on important matters regarding the money structure around the world.

The FX/currencies market is the ultimate game as far as our developed mind goes. It is home to the largest sums of capital being transferred, its moves have a direct impact on nation-states economies as a whole, and it is a tool that may be used to wage geopolitical war without having to drop a single bomb. It therefore constitutes a weapon of mass destruction by definition, if used with such a purpose.

The way I approach them is unique. No, I don’t seek recognition for that. What I simply state is that out of the hundreds of traders I’ve met since I professionally started in this market (back in my old days @ FXstreet.com), none is approaching this market the way I do. We do, however, all share one thing in common: we all rely on the ‘fantasy’ we live in -called efficient markets-, to go on for a while longer. That is equivalent to say we rely and depend on the system engineered before and put in place since 1971 by the ruling elite of our world (yes, come on, call me a conspiracy theorist, I’ll love to hear it from you). With this I just pose the reasonable doubt -which wasn’t present until now- that we, as a whole, may be on the brink of formidable changes, with its many side effects attached. Trying to change what’s been estabilshed over the last three centuries won’t happen without a tremendous amount of effort, that’s guaranteed. Those in the ‘pole seat’ won’t get off it without a fight.

OK then, let’s get FXed. Welcome to my Macro view of things. Hope you stay here for good.